Seasonal Variation and Spatial-Temporal Pattern
Analysis of Anthrax among Livestock in Türkiye, 2005-2019
Tuba Bayir
Selcuk University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of
Biostatistics, Konya, Türkiye
*Corresponding author:
tuubabayir@gmail.com
Abstract
Anthrax has recently re-emerged worldwide, is a
notifiable zoonotic disease with a high disease burden in Türkiye. Despite its
importance for public health and the economy, little is known about the seasonal
and spatiotemporal patterns of anthrax in animals. Therefore, seasonal and
spatiotemporal patterns of livestock anthrax were evaluated in this study. At
the provincial level, cartographic maps showing the distribution of anthrax
outbreaks and cases were created. The spatial autocorrelation function (Moran's
I) was employed to assess the spread features of outbreaks and the cluster
locations were determined using LISA, Getis-Ord GI*. Using the Chi-square test,
proportions of anthrax were calculated, along with their corresponding 95%
confidence intervals. Monthly outbreaks were analyzed by the TRAMO/SEATS
methods. The anthrax cases exhibited a positive spatial correlation and
especially significant clusters were detected in Eastern Anatolia region. Years,
regions, species and season were significantly associated with anthrax
(P<0.001). Between 2005 and 2019, the most outbreaks (160, 10.36%) were recorded
in 2018, while the most cases (1702, 15.92%) were recorded in 2005. When
evaluated regionally, the highest rate of outbreaks (705, 45.66%) and cases
(4539, 42.47%) were recorded in the Eastern Anatolia region. Additionally, the
highest rate of outbreaks (631, 40.87%) and cases (4537, 42.45%) were recorded
in the summer season. When evaluated in terms of species, the highest number of
cases (5314, 49.72%) were recorded in cattles. The outbreak series were
decomposed by the TRAMO/SEATS method and it was determined that there was a
seasonal effect. When the outbreaks were evaluated on a monthly basis, it was
observed that the outbreaks peaked in August (296, 19.17%). In conclusion, the
anthrax in Türkiye has been characterized significantly seasonal and
spatiotemporal. The disease pattern and obtained findings will contribute in the
prevention and control of the disease.
To Cite This Article:
Bayir T, 2023. Seasonal variation and spatiol-temporal
pattern analysis of anthrax among livestock in türkiye, 2005-2019. Pak Vet J, 43(3): 523-530.
http://dx.doi.org/10.29261/pakvetj/2023.059