A Nomogram Prediction Model for Mycobacterium avium
subspecies paratuberculosis based on Individual Dairy Herd
Improvement Information for Dairy Cows
Mingcheng Wang, Daoqi Liu, Ye Wang, Huili Xia,
Chaoying Liu and Gailing Wang*
College of Biological and Food Engineering, Huanghuai University,
Zhumadian, Henan 463000, China
*Corresponding author:
wanggailing@huanghuai.edu.cn
Abstract
This study developed a nomogram model utilizing
dairy cow-level risk factors to predict the risk of Mycobacterium avium
subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection. MAP antibody status was
detected by ELISA in 1,589 dairy cows on commercial farms in Henan Province,
China. Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) data was also collected for each cow.
Univariate analysis was used to identify MAP risk factors and multivariate
logistic regression with backward bootstrap screening was used to determine the
independent predictor for inclusion in the nomogram model. Model performance was
evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC),
calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Finally, 1,481 cows with
complete data were included, with a 24.9% MAP positive rate (n=369). The
nomogram model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC 0.71) and accuracy (70.2%).
Calibration was excellent (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2=3.26, P=0.92), and decision
curve analysis indicated this predictive model has clinical utility for
diagnostic testing. The nomogram predicted individual MAP risk based on
routinely available DHI data including age, milk production, mammary health
status, milk losses, and milk fat. Our study provides a method for screening
high-risk dairy cows and developing intervention strategies based on DHI
reports.
To Cite This Article:
Wang M, Liu D, Wang Y, Xia H, Liu C and Wang G,
2024. A nomogram prediction model for
Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis based on individual dairy
herd improvement information for dairy cows. Pak Vet J, 44(1): 105-110. http://dx.doi.org/10.29261/pakvetj/2024.136